SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP005
ARLP005 The ARRL Solar Report

ZCZC AP05
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 5 ARLP005

From ARRL Headquarters

Newington, CT January 30, 2026
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP005
ARLP005 The ARRL Solar Report

Solar activity continued at low levels this week. Low-level C-class flares
were observed from Regions 4342 and 4353. The majority of the regions were either stable or in decay. New Regions 4359, 4360, and 4361 emerged on the
disk and were numbered. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed. The forecast calls for solar activity to remain at low levels with
a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through January 31.


Solar wind parameters reflected a solar sector boundary crossing followed by the likely onset of high-speed stream (HSS) conditions. On January 27, phi angle switched into a negative sector. Solar wind speed began to increase
after January 28 to around 610 km/s. Enhancements in the solar wind
environment are expected through January 31 under negative polarity Coronal Hole High Speed Streams CH HSS) influences.


The geomagnetic field is expected to quiet to unsettled levels on January 31, and quiet levels on February 1.


Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low with a varying chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through February 21.


No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on January 31, and then on February 1 to 3. Normal to moderate flux levels are expected to persist through the remainder of the period.


Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on February 13, with active periods likely on February 4 and 5 due to the influences of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet and quiet-to-unsettled conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period.


Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, January 29, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:


"The number of sunspot groups has ranged between eight and ten in recent
days, but these are mostly magnetically simple areas with low eruptive activity.

However, the solar wind is blowing faster and faster from the Sun, resulting
in increased geomagnetic activity, especially since January 28. Although this was expected, the combination of fast solar wind, while rapid and significant changes in the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field has had atypical consequences in the ionosphere.

These include numerous occurrences of ionospheric waveguides on January 28
and during the night of January 29.


"In the coming days, solar and geomagnetic activity should continue to
decline. The next increase in geomagnetic activity can be expected in the middle of the first week of February, but this time without the major
influence of high-speed solar wind. Therefore, only a decrease in critical frequencies and an increase in attenuation are expected in the ionosphere
until February 6, followed by a return to average values is expected."


The latest solar report by Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found on YouTube
at https://youtu.be/JXKADnd1E8w?si=pTrl5bAwGvvajUuF [ https://youtu.be/JXKADnd1E8w?si=pTrl5bAwGvvajUuF ] .


The Predicted Planetary A Index for January 31 to February 6 is 8, 5, 5, 5,
15, 12, and 10, with a mean of 8.6. Predicted Planetary K Index is 3, 2, 2,
2, 4, 4, and 3, with a mean of 2.9. 10.7-centimeter flux is 120, 120, 130,
140, 140, 130, and 120, with a mean of 128.6.


For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see www.arrl.org/propagation [ http://www.arrl.org/propagation?utm_source=Informz&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=ARRL
] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at www.arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals [ http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals ] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see www.arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere [ http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere ] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at http://k9la.us [ http://k9la.us/ ] .


Also, check this:
"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST. https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[ https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt ]

NNNN
/EX

ARRL The National Association for Amateur Radio(R)


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