SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP003
ARLP003 The ARRL Solar Report

ZCZC AP03
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 3 ARLP003

From ARRL Headquarters

Newington, CT January 16, 2026
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP003
ARLP003 The ARRL Solar Report

Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M1.6 flare on January 14
from new region AR4341. Spot classification of this region is complicated by limb proximity and foreshortening effects. New Region AR4342 rotated around
the NE limb and was also numbered. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed. Solar activity is expected to be low with a 25-30%
chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, minor-moderate) to January 17.


Solar wind parameters were elevated under continued negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) influences. Solar wind speed ranged mostly between 450-570 km/s.


Another enhancement in the solar wind is expected early on January 17 when a current, positive polarity, CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective. Solar wind speed is likely to exceed 700 km/s based on recurrent data.


The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on January 21 to 27, and then on January 30 and 31st due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent coronal holes. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal to moderate levels.


Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on January 29, unsettled to active levels on January 19 to 23, and
then on 27 and 28. All enhancements in geomagnetic activity are due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent Coronal Hole High Speed Streams. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to mostly quiet.


Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, January 15, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:


"Within the 27-day fluctuation, as expected, the solar radio noise power flux curve on the wavelength of 10.7 cm passed through a minimum of 111 s.f.u. on January 11. Whereupon began to rise slowly. The rise will continue, mainly
due to new activity around the southeastern limb of the solar disk, where the currently largest active region, AR4341, has emerged. Even before its emergence, it made itself known with M-class solar flares accompanied by
CMEs.


"Other significant formations on the Sun include three coronal holes. The second largest is now located on the northwest part of the solar disk. The solar wind blowing from its edges is likely to cause a shorter increase in geomagnetic activity on January 17. Significantly stronger disturbances can
be expected about a week later, when the large coronal hole will move from
the southeast of the solar disk to the central meridian. This will happen simultaneously with AR4341, causing a significant increase in solar flux and also geomagnetic activity."


The Predicted Planetary A Index for January 17 to 23 is 5, 5, 18, 15, 12, 8, and 6, with a mean of 9.9. Predicted Planetary K Index is 2, 2, 4, 4, 4, 3,
and 2, with a mean of 3. 10.7-centimeter flux is 106, 106, 110, 115, 125,
135, and 140, with a mean of 119.6.


For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see www.arrl.org/propagation [ http://www.arrl.org/propagation?utm_source=Informz&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=ARRL
] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at www.arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals [ http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals ] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see www.arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere [ http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere ] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at http://k9la.us [ http://k9la.us/ ] .


Also, check this: "Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST. https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt [ https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt ]


NNNN
/EX

ARRL The National Association for Amateur Radio(R)


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